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COVID-19 models

April 23, 2020: EPI's COVID-19 forecast model

Projections for the State of Florida under different levels of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Author

Ira Longini, Ph.D.{1}

  1. Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, College of Medicine, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA

Attribution

For additional COVID-19 models by this author and additional team members, please visit the Global Epidemic and Mobility Modeling (GLEAM) project site or hop to the team section.

Findings

Projection of the entire U.S.

Even with the current level of social distancing and closures, the epidemic will affect virtually the entire country by May 1, 2020.

Projections for state of florida

Projection of cumulative infections and incidence of deaths with current mitigation
  • Models point to days around April 8, 2020 as the peak time for deaths in the U.S.
  • Based on the last projection, a total of 52,000 COVID-19 deaths are currently projected through April 30, 2020.
  • We project that about 4 percent of the U.S. population will have been infected by April 20, 2020.

Cumulative infections and incidence of deaths with current mitigation

Projection for the State of Florida
  • Estimate around April 14, 2020 as the peak time for deaths in Florida.
  • We project that about 2.8 percent of Florida's population will have been infected by April 20, 2020.
  • Thus, lifting mitigation will result in large epidemic.

infection and death projections for Florida

 
Projected ICU and hospital bed use for State of Florida

ICU and hospital bed use for Florida

Projected effects of different mitigation efforts

Effect of different mitigation efforts

  • Purple line: Schools closed, everything else goes back to normal on May 1, 2020.
  • Red line: Nonessential business open but schools and universities closed, smart working for about 50 percent of people; restaurant, bars and mass gatherings shut down.
  • Green line: The same as red, plus enhanced testing with contact tracing.
  • Blue line: Stay at home order prolonged after May 1, 2020.

Projected effects of different mitigation efforts plotted with ICU and hospital bed capacity

Effect of different mitigation efforts on ICU and bed capacity

  • Thick dashed line: Intensive care unit capacity
  • Thin dashed line: One-third of intensive care unit capacity
  • Purple line: Schools closed, everything else goes back to normal on May 1, 2020.
  • Red line: Nonessential business open but schools and universities closed, smart working for about 50 percent of people; restaurant, bars and mass gatherings shut down.
  • Green line: The same as red, plus enhanced testing with contact tracing.
  • Blue line: Stay at home order prolonged after May 1, 2020.
Boston: Modeling mitigation strategies, second wave

modleling mitigation strategies, second wave

  • Staged reopening without testing but with contact tracing results in a large second wave of infections.
  • If 20 percent or more of the contacts of detected symptomatic individuals are traced and put into quarantine, the epidemic is controlled.

Source:  Aleta, et al. Modeling the impact of social distancing, contact tracing and household isolation on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic.  Forthcoming publication on GLEAM site.

Conclusions

  1. Return to normal will result in a big, epidemic surge, i.e. a second wave.
  2. Epidemic will continue to decline and reach a low endemic level as long as social distancing is in force. However, the infection will not dissappear.
  3. Go slowly with easing social distancing and watch trajectory of epidemic.
  4. Large scaled testing, contact tracing, and treatment preparation is necessary to lift social distancing. Some level of social distancing must stay in place.