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COVID-19 models

Sept. 25, 2020: COVID-19 models by the GLEAM project

Searching for models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, or looking for data on a specific state? Visit the GLEAM project website.

If you are searching for models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, then the Emerging Pathogens Institute recommends visiting the GLEAM project website. UF biostatics professors Ira Longini, Ph.D., and Natalie Dean, both UF/EPI-affiliated faculty, have contributed to the development of these models, along with many others on the GLEAM team.

This site packs a lot of data, but there are three key areas to explore:

  • First, the Key Projection Results tab displays data for what the spread of COVID-19 may look like over the coming weeks. Projections for weekly and cumulative deaths, and the infection attack rate, can be sorted by date to preview estimated scenarios for the coming weeks.
  • This Infection and Death Projections tab displays a graph that can be sorted by state for weekly and daily infection and death rate projections on a per capita basis.
  • Last, the GLEAM project also features a dynamic map that models Mobility data for the U.S. Mobility refers to movements people make when commuting, shopping, or going to school. It is a proxy for contact between people, although it does not reflect behavioral strategies that can reduce transmission such as wearing a face mask or maintaining a six-foot or greater social distance from others. The percentage of changed mobility displayed on this map is measured against baseline values calculated from January and February 2020 before county and state lockdown measures were implemented in the pandemic’s initial stages. The mobility data tends to lag several weeks behind the current date due to the time it takes to process the data.