End-of-Year Projections for COVID-19 in Florida

October 9, 2021: UF researchers estimate what COVID-19 infections, cases, and deaths may look like in Florida in the coming months.

The EPI has also published a report for the public that provides details on methods and the interpretation of these figures. The report includes additional projections for infections and a value known as the time-varying reproduction number, or Rt which quanitfies the fluctuating rate of transmission in a population over time. 

graph of Florida's projected covid cases through end of 2021

The figure above shows the projected reported cases per day in Florida through the end of 2021. The late summer/fall surge reflects the increased infectiousness of the delta variant, and the reduced vaccine efficacy against this variant. The black line shows past actual reported COVID-19 cases, and the yellow line shows the projected reported cases per day. The projections assume that no new major variants of concern will be introduced in 2021; that vaccinations will continue at the same pace and that no additional interventions will be introduced to mitigate the virus' spread. 

graph of Florida's projected covid cases through end of 2021

The figure above shows the projected reported cases per week in Florida through the end of 2021. The late summer/fall surge reflects the increased infectiousness of the delta variant, and the reduced vaccine efficacy against this variant. The black line shows past actual reported COVID-19 cases, and the yellow line shows the projected reported cases per week. The projections assume that no new major variants of concern will be introduced in 2021; that vaccinations will continue at the same pace and that no additional interventions will be introduced to mitigate the virus' spread.

Line graph COVID-19 delta wave fall_projected_cases_deaths

The graph above shows the projected deaths of COVID-19 that are expected to be reported per day in Florida through the end of 2021. The late summer/fall surge reflects the increased infectiousness of the delta variant, and the reduced vaccine efficacy against this variant. The black line shows past actual reported deaths due to COVID-19, and the red line shows the projected reported deaths per week. The projections assume that vaccinations continue at the same pace and that no further interventions are introduced to mitigate the virus' spread, such as increased social distancing or wearing face masks. 


Figures and associated reported created by Thomas Hladish, research scientist in the Department of Biology at UF; Alexander Pillai, research assistant in the Department of Biology at UF; Kok Ben Toh, postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Preventative Medicine at Northwestern University; and Ira Longini, Jr., professor in the Department of Biostatistics at UF.